fevnut's musings 2023/#09: Table Toppers, Batley Bogey and Statistics

 

 

Table Toppers

We are currently sitting proudly at the top of the Championship table four points clear of Toulouse and Sheffield.

After 7 rounds last season we were also at the top but the situation was rather different. In 2022 we on top for 10 weeks but we were never more than one point above Leigh. So, the omens are good. It’s all in our hands.

We thought we would look back at the situation in the 4 glorious seasons of 2010 to 2013 when we finished top 4 years in succession.

2010: We topped the table nearly all year (18 weeks out of 22). After the 7^th round we were top but by only a single point. By Round 19 we were 11 points clear although that dropped back to a 6 point margin in the end.

2011: That year we were sitting at the top for 7 of the 22 weekly rounds. After the 7^th round we were in 4^th place and all year we never got more than 3 points clear.

2012: It wasn’t until the 12^th round that we got to the top of the table and then stayed there for the rest of the season. After 7 rounds we were in 3^rd place and we were never more than 3 points clear at the top.

2013: We topped the table for 11 out of the 26 weekly rounds. We started off well and were top for the first six rounds but dropped down to 2^nd in the 7^th round. We regained the top position after 19 rounds but then dropped back to 2^nd only regaining the lead in the last week. The highest margin of our lead during the season was 3 points and it ended up being thus.

In those four years our best start was in 2012 when we won our first 6 matches. We never managed the 7 wins that we have achieved this year.

Our best ever start to a League season was in 2021 when we won our first 13 matches.

Our longest run of league wins came in 2011 when we won the last 14 matches. A run that was increased to 17 with wins in the first 3 games of 2012.

 

Batley bogey

If you look at Fev’s overall record against Batley it is a very good one. Out of the total of 169 times that we have met Rovers have won 109 with 3 drawn. In the Summer Era it is even better with 34 wins out of 49 with one drawn.

Nevertheless, last season was a bit of a shocker against them in both the league and the play-offs. In March we went to Mount Pleasant and drew 20-20. Then in the home match in June we had an absolute shocker and lost 28-20, having never been ahead throughout the whole eighty minutes. But worse was still to come, of course, with the play-off semi-final when Batley came to Fev and, despite the league results, all the pundits predicted a good win for Fev only for Batley to win 32-28 and again Fev were unable to get into the lead through the whole game.

Amazingly, that 20-20 draw at Batley in March came just a week after we had met them there in the Challenge Cup and comprehensively beat them 54-20.

Without doubt, the most unbelievable match against Batley was in a Championship Shield match in 2015 when Batley were winning by 20 points with 6 minutes to go and yet Fev scored 22 points in those last 6 minutes to end up winning 28-26 with the comic ending coming after the hooter when Shaun Ainscough went to kick the ball into touch in celebration after the hooter went but the ball never made it to the touchline and Will Sharp pounced upon it and scored to bring the teams level and Paul Sykes added a touchline conversion to give Fev the victory!

There is one issue over matches between Rovers and Batley which can’t be resolved this week but very definitely needs to be put right. The teams have met three times in play-off matches (2002, 2013 and 2022). Each time Fev were at home and were thought to be very much the favourites but lost in all three!!!! We are hoping that we meet again in the 2023 play-offs and win this time!

 

Statistics

fevnut deals with so many statistics that it is inevitable that we sometimes get things wrong. When we do we always publish a correction as soon as possible.

Recently a stat was produced (not by us!) that Keighley’s win against Bradford a couple of weeks ago was their first win against them since 1945. This ended up being broadcast and the stat was all over the media. But it simply wasn’t true. They beat them twice (albeit in different seasons) in 1975.

Sometimes we have been criticised for our use of statistics but we want to emphasise that statistics are a guide to what might happen but they are not predictors of future events.

We became fascinated by the nature of statistics when studying the subject at university and then used to enjoy teaching the subject in comprehensive schools.

When you toss a coin what is the probability that it will land on heads? A half, of course. And we were always careful to explain that what has happened so far does not alter the probability next time. And usually our students grasped that idea. You’ve’ tossed a coin three times and it’s been heads every time. What’s the probability of it being heads the fourth time. Very pleased when the students grasped that it would still be a half. But then we used to enjoy posing this – ‘A coin has been tossed 27 times and every time it has landed on heads. What is the probability that it will land on heads the 28^th time it is tossed?’ The students who had grasped the idea would smile and say a half and were rather astonished when we rejected that answer. No, I would say, the probability is 1 (i.e. certain). But that’s not what you told us someone would say. Yes, but the probability of 27 heads in a row is only one in about 135 million which means that something very strange is going on. The only reasonable conclusion is that the coin in question is heads on both sides!! So it will always land on heads.

Statistics are very useful….but BEWARE!