fevnut's musings 2023/#30: Toulouse and The Final Weekend - all the possibilities

    

Toulouse

We were unable to get to Toulouse and it was difficult watching it on the stream at the clubhouse, especially as we got no commentary. But, since then, we have been able to watch the complete match on our television by connecting it up with the video on RoversTV.

This year we have scored 50 or more points eight times, against Whitehaven (twice), Barrow, Newcastle (twice), Swinton, Keighley and London. And we have conceded eight or less points 14 times, against Whitehaven (twice), Keighley (twice), Widnes, York (twice), Barrow, Newcastle, Swinton (twice), London, Batley and Bradford.

However, we felt that last Saturday’s match against Toulouse was the best performance yet, bearing in mind that we were away to our strongest rivals. Our forwards were dominant against a strong opposition pack, our halves were creative and our backs incisive. In the main our defence was strong. Yes, Gareth Gale had a bit of a nightmare in the first half with two dropped attempts to claim long kicks up-field from Toulouse but we thought the way he responded was very good. Many would have crumbled but he gritted his teeth and was virtually flawless in the second half. Well done, Gaz!

The mentality of the team was very strong, exactly the way it needs to be for the play-offs. We feel far more optimistic now about our preparedness to go all the way and secure our place in the top tier for the first time since we were disgracefully removed at the end of the 1994/95 season.

Just in case there is anyone reading this who doesn’t know what happened that year, let’s spell it out. We went into the season with the rules clear. There were 16 teams in the Championship League (the name of the top tier in those days) and, at the end of the season, the bottom four (13th to 16th) were to be relegated to the Second Division. But very late in the season the rules were changed and the RFL decided that six would be relegated in order to leave places, in the shortly to be introduced Super League, for Paris Saint Germain and London Broncos. Fev finished 11th and Salford finished 12th so both were relegated along with Wakefield, Widnes, Hull and Doncaster.

The Final Weekend – all the possibilities

Play-Offs

Fev top of the league and Toulouse second is assured, so they both go straight through to the play-off semi-finals. But there is still a lot to be decided for the clubs currently sitting in third to eight places.

Sheffield and Bradford have both clinched a berth in the play-offs and they play each other in the last match of the league season, on Sunday evening which is being shown live on Viaplay. Either a win for Sheffield or a draw will mean that Sheffield will finish third. A win for Bradford would see them claiming third position. The team finishing third will play away at Toulouse in the semi-final. Whoever does finish third cannot be Fev’s opponents in the semi-finals.

London, Halifax, York and Batley are still in with a chance of claiming the other two play-off spots.

London (at home to Keighley this weekend) could move up to fourth if Sheffield beat Bradford. Were Bradford and London to win they will remain in fourth because they would finish level on points with Sheffield but Sheffield have a far better points difference. Should London lose they will still probably get into the play-offs because of their superior points difference over York and Batley.

A Halifax win or draw at home to Swinton would see them into the play-offs, the draw would take them there on points difference. Were they to lose either York or Batley could push them out of the play-offs.

York need to win away at Barrow (who are still fighting to avoid relegation) and then hope that Halifax lose and Batley don’t beat Newcastle by a margin 14 points better than their win over Barrow.

Batley (at home to Newcastle) need a big win to give them any chance of getting into the top 6. The chance only comes into play if Halifax lose. The win would take them above Halifax and into the play-offs but only if York either fail to win or they beat Newcastle sufficiently well to overtake York on points difference.

Batley play on Saturday, Halifax, York and London on Sunday afternoon. There are going to be a load of fans desperately checking out the scores on Sunday afternoon!

It reminds us of the last day of the 1998 league campaign when we needed to beat Leigh by at least 33 points to climb above Hunslet and get into the play-offs. We ended up winning 58-4 with a hat trick from Danny Baker. The big win ended up taking us above Swinton as well who won their final game but only by six points (20-14) against Whitehaven.

Fev knew what needed to be done because with 11 teams in the league each week one club didn’t play and Hunslet had completed their league season the weekend before.

Relegation

If the scenario for the play-off places is promising an exciting weekend, there will be even greater ‘itchy bums’ for the four clubs that could still join Newcastle in being relegated to League One.

Barrow could only be relegated in the very, very unlikely outcome of Whitehaven (away at Toulouse), Keighley (away at London) and Swinton (away at Halifax) were all to win!

Amazingly, Whitehaven, Keighley and Swinton are all currently on 16 points and the points differences are likely to make all the difference. Whitehaven’s points difference is -318 which is only 5 better than Keighley and Swinton who are both on -323.

We had to check what happens if two clubs finish on the same points and points difference. It then goes to points percentage which would probably be to Keighley’s advantage over Swinton.

It’s going to be a desperate day, particularly after London Skolars withdrawal from the League One leaves that division in an even greater position of non-viability. All the talk has been about IMG and Super League but there is a much greater imperative to sort out the structure below Super League.

So, out of fourteen clubs in the Championship, on the last weekend only four have nothing to gain or lose from the results. Fev and Toulouse, guaranteed first and second respectively, Newcastle already relegated and Widnes (Fev’s opponents this weekend) the only team who can’t get into the play-offs or be relegated. What a finale to the league season!

 

1,000 points

The 26 points against Toulouse took us to 1,017 points in league games in 2023. It is only the 26th time this feat has been accomplished since professional rugby league kicked off in 1895.